Wednesday, January 21, 2015

The view from the left coast


2014 was either the warmest year in the past 100 years or among the 3 coldest years in the last 10,000.  Take your pick.

I’ve been having a lot of trouble with that “warmest in the last 100 years” claim which has led me to a variety of websites.  The problem with the warmest claim is twofold:

  1. Its presented as confirmation of anthropogenic global warming – warming caused by man’s emissions of CO2 in other words.  But even if it actually is a warmer year, it doesn’t by itself confirm anything.  And as I am about to argue, its not actually the warmest year in the last 100.  More importantly the current measured temperatures continue to stubbornly diverge from the alarmist  predictions of the warmists.  In actual fact the so-called warming trend has been in a 20 year pause now.  GlowBullPause
  2. Independent of any AGW causation, the measurement itself is suspect.  Whenever you do a measurement you have to consider the margin of error.  If you measure something by pacing it off with your feet you wouldn’t subsequently claim that the distance was exactly 6.37283013 feet.  (or maybe you would in which case everyone who saw you take the measurement would immediately assume you were a fool)  In the case of the “warmest in 100 years” claim, the margin of error is reported as 1/10th of a degree but the margin of warmest is reported as only .02 of a degree.  In other words the margin of error is 5X as large as the difference reported.  The claim is every bit as bogus as you reporting an 8 decimal point distance by stomping it off against your shoe.

This information is not immediately popular in our current locale.  Try to imagine my dismay.

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