Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Grandma would have loved this moment

When Grandma and Grandpa left the farm their federal polling station dropped from 3 Liberal votes to 1.  Everybody knew whose vote that was – it was Barbara Pavelich – her husband Frank voted a straight CCF line. 

So its not surprising that Grandma was a huge Trudeau fan.  She actually had a scrapbook with pictures that included his wedding and their baby pictures.  Which brings us to today’s topic – Justin’s long awaited announcement.  The kid definitely has the old man’s gift of the gab – gotta love his opening line - “behind every successful man there stands an astonished woman”.  There’s no way Margaret “Maggie” could have given as eloquent an introduction for Pierre but that perhaps highlights what I expect will be Justin’s problem.

Pierre was likely the smartest man who has ever served as our Prime Minister.  He was also a charismatic leader.  It seems to me that his son has inherited that charisma and leadership ability but I see no evidence that he is anywhere close to the father’s intellect.  Perhaps time will prove me wrong but here’s what I predict:

  1. The Libs will crown him.  The party old guard will attempt to remold him and he will resist but eventually will succumb to the allure of the finances and power they promise him.
  2. He will improve the Libs share of the popular vote in Ontario and Quebec, possibly BC as well.  That will not however translate into a massive increase in seats.  He will take some seats from the BlocDP in Quebec and he will take back some Conservative seats in Ontario.

My great hope is that he will weaken the BlocDP hold on Quebec enough that the Conservatives will regain some seats.  Time will tell.

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